Part I

Editor's Note: To avoid singular incessant meandering into periphrastic oblivion, we have halved this analysis of the current Republican Presidential Primary field.

Bereft Only Of The Powdered Wig

Let us at the outset address the obvious.

William F. Buckley, the Founding Father of the modern ideology, once said “You are either conservative, or you are a Conservative”. Meaning you have some of the appropriate tendencies, or you are a fully formed member of the movement.

I am decidedly all-in, in Texas Hold ‘Em parlance. The moment former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich enters the Republican Presidential primary, there I will be. Solid but undistinguished Conservative former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is now also flirting with the notion, but he does not fan the ideological flame the way Gingrich does, and I do not see him galvanizing the vaunted base the way Newt would.

(My thought: Gingrich is right now leaning towards running, Thompson will not.)

Regardless, neither is there now. To again use the poker allusion, one can only play with the cards one has in hand. Bereft of puritanically true Believers, we political early risers must begin to cull from this crack-of-dawn as-is Elephantary field.

For Now, We Will Take It

The UnViables contain some close to ideals, but they are The UnViables. Politics is also about winning; Ronald Reagan once proffered that he would always more than happily take half the loaf, and come back later for the rest.

At the very least we would know where the remaining bread is. As it is, we have already dedicated too much time to the likes of Tom Trancredo (97.8% American Conservative Union Conservative rating - one-trick Illegal Immigration pony - 1% in early polls), Sam Brownback (94% - terrible on illegal immigration - 2% in early polls) and Duncan Hunter (92% - questionable on free trade - <1% in early polls). They may be (nearly) whole-loafers, but they have no chance of being White House-ers.

An UnViable Lining Up His Campaign

That none of the above has even the longest of shots puts again the lie to the ongoing Media fable that the Republican Party is a lumbering monolithic body politic. Especially when one considers the Big Three currently leading the Herd.

Therein we have former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (34% in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll March 9-11), current Arizona Senator John McCain (18%) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (9%). All have checkered Conservative pasts and presents, yet here they are atop the field.

But McCain is sinking like a stone, and Romney has not moved the needle since entering the race; Giuliani, however, is on the accelerated ascendancy. And there are legitimate, Conservative reasons for all of this.

First, the runners-up.

John McCain, Courting Republicans

McCain has made a Media career of sticking his thumb in the eyes of the Republican Elephant. At this point, whenever he enters a room, Conservatives place their hands in front of their faces Three Stooges-style to block the next Maverick poke. Republicans have been known to hand out Lifetime Achievement Award nominations (See: Dole, Bob), but for McCain to now run as the establishment candidate is patently absurd, and a woeful political blunder.

The McCain Campaign Acid Test

This is in addition to his being dead wrong on illegal immigration, his galloping desire to bestow Constitutional rights on foreign terrorists, his deformation of campaign finance laws to the detriment of free speech and his opposition to President George W. Bush’s 2003 tax cuts. Place the fork firmly in this campaign; it will only get worse from here.

Romney has what I will call the Fred Astaire problem. His fervent, fevered dancing around his past statements regarding abortion and gay marriage smacks of politically expedient disingenuousness. He says he is now reformed, and is selling himself as the Conservative candidate in the race, but very few people are buying. (And a Mitt Note: To be considered Reaganesque, someone besides just you has to be saying it.)

Because his record belies the sale. Health Care for All, the alleged crown jewel of his sole four-year stint in public office, is already becoming a strident statist nightmare. And prior to this Presidential foray, he has rarely said or done anything that is Conservative, in fact often coming down on the Left side of a great many (additional) issues.

Mitt's, Not Moving

Romney at the time publicly stated his opposition to President Bush’s levy reductions, which was a matter from which he, as a Governor, could have very easily (and smartly, given his position and his Party) stayed a million miles away. His desire to express overt and direct opposition when he did not have to may reveal a great deal more about his true ideological leanings than he would now wish be seen.

Romney is, and will remain, at less than 10%.

Which brings us to Giuliani.